An analysis at what may be the half-way mark


Here is my analysis of the medals table as run by Worldometer. The source data is theirs with some additional analysis by me, and in particular the countries are arranged by persons recorded to have died of Covid19, and I have added in the column deaths per case, and made a colour-scaling on the top 100 countries, by deaths, both of cases per thousand inhabitants  (“C/Th”) and deaths per case as a percentage (“D/C”).

The scalings serve to assist us visually in the making of a number of observations, and namely:

1. There is little correlation between cases per thousand and deaths per case. I would have expected a slight negative correlation, which would corroborate the thesis that a higher number of cases per thousand is noted by countries with higher testing while the same would give a lower deaths per case rate, and this is not really seen, however the cases per thousand figure range is skewed by the outlier San Marino.

2. Which segues into the second point, that the range of cases per thousand is very broad indeed, even when counting only the top 100 countries on the medals table for number of deaths so far. San Marino is a clear outlier, Andorra also, but below 5/1000 they start to come thick and fast, but still there are those in the top 100 even which are coming in at fewer than 0.25/1000. A high population country like Tanzania is able to record 0.1, just under the top 100 by deaths, and within the top 100, India and China seem to pull the scale average down strongly with 0.07 and 0.06 cases per thousand respectively.  For the Indians reading that’s 70 cases per lakh, by the way.  This is a sizeable range of incidence of cases and seems to have little correlation to geography or economy. Certainly economy is almost working against this statistic, as some of the highest sufferers are also high GDP/capita countries. The total of that column is meaningless as it is a sum of those percentages, it should of course show the world average which is 0.61, kept so low by India and China’s 0.06 and 0.07 C/Th readings, given that they together make up 36.4% of the world’s population but only 2.4% of the global deaths so far.

3.  The other observation I would like to make is the range of deaths per case reported, even among countries of big populations and big incidences. Belgium at 16.37% is the highest, but is not even an outlier as you have France, UK and Italy following not far behind.  From the bottom of the graph we see a world average of 6.62% and most countries have kept below that figure, with Poland at 5% and Germany at 4.6%. The figures which may surprise us though come from Russia at 0.93% and Saudi Arabia, UAE, Belarus and some others also claiming results below 1% fatalities on Covid cases.

Either these people have different biologies – I know the phrase in Russian “Что русскому здоровье, то немцу смерть” (ie “what’s healthy for the Russian means death for the German”) but I don’t take it quite that literally – or else they are classifying their diseases quite differently.

Now if this were a real Olympic medal table, like the one they were supposed to be making in Japan right now, to prepare for a real international sporting event, and each nation made up its own rules for the way the games and sports should be done, it would be chaos, there would be accusations of cheating and the result would not be something that anyone could make any fair conclusions from.

This is the problem here – we may be able to get our act together internationally on how to play silly games and run around a field, but on an important matter of this consequence, where we have swept the Olympics aside over it, as well as our livelihoods and educations of our children and their futures, we cannot get any consensus.

Russia is saying “if someone has something that would probably have killed them in the foreseeable future anyway, and this death has only been hastened by Covid, then we still say that that other illness is the reason for the death”, while most western countries are saying “if a person dies having Corona virus, then they die OF Corona virus, and many have co-morbidities”.  Many in the West may well agree with Russia’s take,  or may say that the truth is in the middle, which is probably where Germany is defining it. Either that or they have really good treatments they are not telling us about, the rotters.

Before blaming these countries, though, consider closer to home, the misreporting of care home deaths first in France, then in the UK which needed correction. And then the refusal by the UK or the Netherlands to published “recovered” statistics and therefore not allow the active cases curve on a world basis to assume the reassuring parabola it has taken on in many countries. There seems to be no consensus on what a “recovered” case looks like, but if we don’t have that information then we cannot make important decisions, on an international basis, including when to allow travel between countries.

Countries with similar incidences, similar approaches to containment and are at a similar point in the curve may be able to open borders between each other on an exclusive basis, gradually gathering other countries in, but at present there is little basis for doing so as the way these things are even talked about and measured is inconsistent. This is a number one lesson to learn in the very near future, so that the second half of this crisis is managed a bit better than the first half.

If it isn’t, then it won’t be the second half, but the greater part of it. And with very good management it could be that we are well pasrt half-way.

Now the thing is, it calls for international co-operation. The EU had no international health policy simply referring all that back to the WHO. The WHO lost credibility with a number of countries. Now with or without the WHO there will be calls for more international level health government, and this is a very easy way for world government to push one stage nearer. A world government which belongs only to Christ but which will be first assumed by the Usurper, as we know from very ancient texts.

The speed at which this could now go, and the technology that can be applied with its implications in terms of freedoms and invigilation by the State, is something all too recognisable to anyone versed in scripture.

About David J. James

56 year old UK origin Chartered Accountant and business consultant who loves languages, literature, history, religion, politics, internet, vlogging and blogging and lively written or spoken discussion, plays backgammon and a few other board games. Walks and listens to Audible for hours a day usually, and avoids use of the car. Conservative Christian, married to an angel with advanced Multiple Sclerosis. We have three kids, two of them autistic, and we live in Warsaw, Poland. On the board of the main British-Polish charity Fundacja Sue Ryder in Poland, and involved in the Vocational Autistic School of "Nie Z Tej Bajki" in Warsaw. Member of Gideons International. Serves on two committees of the Chamber of Auditors in Poland, and on several Boards and Supervisory Boards. Has own consultancy called Quoracy.com delivering business governance and audit/valuation solutions as well as mentoring. Author of the GoldList Method for systematic optimal use of the long-term memory in learning.

Posted on 17/05/2020, in Blog only. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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